Crédito: poderia ser um problema?

[GiaMa]

Mais tarde vamos falar um pouco sobre o "crédito" que vem utilizado para operaçoes.

Entretanto, um artigo sobre a mais recente operaçao de KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts que è um "private equity" especializado em compras com utilizo de um grande "leverage". Um outro exemplo poderia ser Blackstone Group):

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az.ADMAUj3wI&refer=home

[GiaMa]

Liquidez è sinonimo de confiança

A liquidez ("liquidità", nao sei como dizer em portuguese…) pode ser de 2 tipos:

• DINHEIRO, na conta corrente ou em instrumentos “risk free” – veja o link - (como “PCT” [pronti contro termine] ou obrigaçoes de curto prazo…)
• DEBITO, por exemplo crédito imobiliario (mutuos) ou um emprestimo
  

No primeiro caso, è liquidità verdadera. No segundo, è liquidità somente se eu pago os interesses e pago o capital para dar-lo tras.

Hoje cerca o 90% de LIQUIDEZ do que nos falamos è de tipo 2 (DEBITOS/CREDITOS) e vem criada na base da confiança (“dar o crédito”).

Por exemplos:

• os grupos de Private Equity como KKR hoje tem um assim grande crédito (confiança) que com grande facilidade podem achar 10-20 ou 50 mil milhoes $$ de debito utilizando somente 1/10 de proprio capitale (dos proprios clientes). Os bancos que emprestam dinehiro tem confiança que KKR poderia re-vender o que ele compra a um preço maior e que podem pagar milioes em interesses annuais para o crédito obtenido (conseguido). KKR è especializado em operaçoes LBO (leveraged buyouts)
• Falando de crédito imobiliario (mutuo) està, por exemplo, o problema de mutuos “sub-prime” (credito dado a pessoas que podem oferecer somente garancias fraquinhas....) que hoje è uma percentagem sensivel em comparaçao ao mercado de mutuos. Nos Estados Unidos e em Europa está transformando-se em um problema porque muitas pessoas nao tem mais como pagar (e em Brasil? Como è a situaçao?).

Entao…. a liquidez, hoje, parece nao ser dinheiro real ma, em verdade, è “confiança” que os mercados financeiros (açoes) e os imoveis poderao continuar a subir.

(SEGUE mais tarde….)

[GiaMa]

E’ comum financiar-se em yen ou em CHF e comprar no mercado de açoes (veja o grafico, abaixo, de correlaçao entre EURCHF ou EURJPY e o S&P-500 ou Eurostoxx).

Esses grupos se financiam em CHF e JPY e depois eles utilizam o dinheiro para realizar LBO (leveraged buyouts) de 10-20 o 50 mil milhoes de dolares. (KKR està comprando Alliance Boots Plc para $21 mil milioes, e no inicio de abril comprou of First Data Corp. para $25.6 mil milioes. 

(SEGUE….)

[GiaMa]

Olhamos um outro exemplo e confirmaçao que è comum financiar-se em JPY para comprar em mercado.

Abaixo, um grafico 15 min (referente-se aos dias 18, 19 e 20 abril) com o cross EURJPY, o contracto mini-SP e o DAX futuro.

[GiaMa]

A engenharia financeira (sobretudo com os “credit derivatives”) tem como fim, aumentar o debito; e mais aumenta o debito/crédito e mais OPA, buyouts ou mergers nos temos. RBS que compra ABN e as bolsas subem….. è mais facil utilizar o credito do que poupar, ganhar e depois comprar.

Mais crédito vc cria (então, debito) e mais subem os imoveis, açoes, obrigaçoes…. O credito è “magia”. Nao è importante ter dinheiro mas è importante ter credito.

A riqueza financeira não reflete os lucros das empresas mas depende do crédito (eu escrevi em um outro topico). No periodo 1996-1999 os ganhos (eps) das empresas estavam «inalterados» mas o SP subiu desde 615 pontos até 1371 em abril 1999 (pode ler o topico e ver o grafico aqui: http://www.finbest.net/forum/index.php?topic=257.msg1010#msg1010).

Abaixo o grafico que estava no meu outro mensagem.

[GiaMa]

Em Italia, espécies na faixas dos “ricos”, as pessoas têm ainda muitos dinheiro em "CASH", na conta corrente, ou em geral em instrumentos “risk free”. Sois instrumentos que vc pode utilizar se vc tem necessitade, por exemplo se vc perde o trabalho ou deveria fechar sua loja ou ativitade.

O que è importante, que nós devemos ver, é o “saldo” entre a “liquidez” (CASH) e o débito hipotecario e ao consumo.

Vc pode ter 4 ou 10 apartamentos, produtos estruturados, seguros ou açoes ma estes sois instrumentos que tem minor liquidez (por exemplo um flat ou uma casa) ou sois sujeitos às variações do -20% em pouco tempo em algumas circunstâncias. Sobretudo se deveriam ser vendidos a fim pagar débitos, ou juros ou em caso que vc tem problemas com seu trabalho, quando o mercado està caindo.
Quando você vende instrumentos “CASH” não tem estes problemas. (SEGUE....)

[GiaMa]

Nos Estados Unidos, agora, o SALDO entre « Liquidez » e outros instrumentos monetarios «liquidos» (CASH) e o debito hipotecario e o debito ao consumidor è negativo de 3594 mil milhoes (assim, [instrumentos liquidos – debito = -3594 mil milhoes]).

Eles tem 13293 mil milhoes de debitos e 9699 mil milhoes de « non equity liquid assets ».

O problema è que as familias nos Estados Unidos agora tem 13293 mil milhoes de debito ao consumidor (4 mil acumulados somente duranto o ano 2003). O saldo è negativo e se algum perde seu trabalho deve necessariamente, logo, vender as propriedades ou fundos para pagar os debitos ou os juros.

[GiaMa]

Vou a proseguir minhas "elucubraçoes" sobre o argumento "Crédito: poderia ser um problema?".

Hoje, o retorno no capital das companhias é muito elevado, e as taxas de interesse são baixas, especialmente em Japão onde com "swaps" e similar qualquer-um pode obter um empréstimo de 1% ou menos. Conseqüentemente houve 4.000 billions de "transações" (OPA, fusões, aquisições, buyout..) no ano 2006, e tudos da parte de companhias grandes e "mega" fundos (KKR, Blackstone...).

Não é necessário que o público compra nada (e isso è demonstrado no fato que os fluxos de dinheiro nos fundos sois negativos ou perto do zero), a fim de fazer que o publico americano ou  italiano põem 100 billions a fim comprar ações no mercado. Pelo contrario, nos vemos estas fusões de 50 billions, estas "leveraged buyout" de 40 billions. 

Até mais tarde... para proseguir. 

[GiaMa]

Hoje, 17 de maio, tambem Bernanke fala sobre o "problema de credito"... 

"BERNANKE: ASKING BANKS TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT PRV EQU LOANS"

*DJ Bernanke: Significant Risks Related To Pvt Equity Financing

DJ Fed's Bernanke:Fincl System Can Absorb Losses From Subprime

Bernanke: Mortgage crackdown coming
 
WASHINGTON (AP) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that
he did not believe the growing number of mortgage defaults would seriously harm
the economy.
    Facing criticism from members of Congress about lax regulation, Bernanke
also promised that the Fed would do everything possible to crack down on abuses
that have put millions of homeowners in jeopardy of defaulting on their
mortgages.
    "We at the Federal Reserve will do all that we can to prevent fraud and
abusive lending and to ensure that lenders employ sound underwriting practices
and make effective disclosures to consumers," Bernanke said in remarks prepared
for a financial conference in Chicago.
    However, Bernanke in his remarks did not detail any specific tightening of
regulations, saying only that the Fed would hold hearings in coming weeks on the
matter.
    Bernanke said while it was likely that there would be further increases in
mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures this year and in 2008, he did not
believe this problem would be enough to derail the overall economy.
    "We believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader
housing market will be limited and we do not expect significant spillovers from
the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system,"
Bernanke said.
    Bernanke, who served as President Bush's chief economic adviser before
taking over the Fed post in February 2006, said regulators needed to be sure
that any rules they imposed did not stifle the market for legtimate loans.
    "We must be careful not to inadvertently suppress responsible lending or
eliminate refinancing opportunities for subprime borrowers," he said in his
remarks, copies of which were distributed in Washington.
    Bernanke's comments to a banking conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago marked his most extensive review of the troubles in the subprime
market since the Fed and other banking regulators came under criticism from
members of Congress.
    Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said a "chronology of
regulatory neglect" allowed the problems in the subprime market to go unchecked.
    Banks and other lenders loosened their standards for making riskier
mortgages during the five-year housing boom.
    The problems in subprime mortgages -- higher-priced home loans for people
with weaker credit histories -- have roiled financial markets in recent months
and raised concerns about possible spillover effects to the larger economy.
    But in his speech, Bernanke said that the "vast majority of mortgages,
including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well."
    He said that past gains in home prices have left most homeowners with
significant amounts of equity in their houses and the growth in jobs and incomes
should allow most households to keep their financial obligations in a manageable
range.
   
17May07 14:01 GMT

[GiaMa]

De novo.... Blackstone compra Alliance para 7.8 mil milhoes de $$.
Increivel... todos os meses eles compram. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117940673513206177.html?mod=home_whats_news_us

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWNAS180020070518

[GiaMa]

Barron's tambem fala sobre isso. O problema do credito è muito interessante em este periodo....
Abaixo o artigo de 26 de maio que fala de mesmas coisas do que eu falei no inicio de este topico (por ex. "leveraged buyouts", sub-prime mortgages, etc etc).

Barron's(5/28) Current Yield: From Subprime To Ridiculous In Bank Loans

  The great, global bull market in stocks rests heavily on the booming credit markets. But there are increasing worries about the soundness of that foundation. 
  Never has credit been made available on such advantageous terms to private borrowers, who are using it to pay for mammoth private-equity transactions, leveraged buyouts, mergers and acquisitions (como eu escreveu no inicio de este topico), or merely to repurchase shares. Perhaps with one exception: The private sector has been showered with credit insuch profusion and without discrimination among borrowers once before -- in subprime mortgages. We're just now seeing the downside of the boom-and-bust
cycle from these previously unimagined excesses. 

  But even the wackiest no-documentation, interest-only, adjustable-rate option mortgage has nothing on the latest contrivances of the credit market, where bank loans are sliced, diced and repackaged into collateralized loan obligations, which are snapped up by the likes of hedge funds. The new age of derivatives has been well reported. But as in every credit cycle in history, lending standards are being stretched. 
  Bank loans traditionally stood at the top; secured by collateral, bound by stringent conditions of financial rectitude, these senior loans stood first in line to be repaid and were near bullet-proof -- at least compared to bonds, which typically were unsecured and issued with less strict conditions. 
  Some new loans actually can provide less protection than older junk bonds.

That insight comes from Kingman Penniman, a long-time observer and analyst of the high-yield market, who heads KDP Investment Advisors, which is located a safe remove from Wall Street in Montpelier, Vt. 
  The highly leveraged loan market has surpassed the junk-bond market, owing in part to bankers' innovation in the form of "covenant lite" loans, which lack the strictures that senior obligations traditionally carried. Covenant-lite loans accounted for only 5% of the market in 2006, $24 billion out of $480 billion of total loans, according to Penniman. So far this year, "cov-lites" total $70 billion out of $237 billion, he says. 
  Traditional loans typically had maintenance tests, which required the borrower to meet various financial standards, such as multiples of coverage of debt service or collateral. Now, borrowers will refinance their old loans with cov-lites to free themselves from those constrictions, Penniman explains, allowing the companies to use those assets to obtain more loans to further lever their balance sheets. 
  Indeed, so great is the demand from investors for any extra margin of yield that the attitude of some is to buy first and ask questions later. Due diligence means no allocation. 

  With defaults at cyclical lows, the economy and profits growing and credit conditions easy, this lack of discrimination isn't hurting anyone, he continues. But come the other side of the cycle, these loans will lack the protections of the old-fashioned loans. Past cycles have provided a blueprint for workouts of bad debt, based on clear claims on collateral, which may not exist. 

  For now, no worries, as cov-lite loans keep the global boom in private equity, LBOs, M&A and buybacks going. But lowering of lending standards is an integral ingredient of any asset bubble, as the subprime boom and bust shows. Ironically, the stock market seemed more concerned about the rise in yields on Treasury securities to near their highest level of the year. Ironic, because the cost of corporate borrowing has been scarcely affected as spreads -- the risk premium on private securities over riskless government paper -- narrowed further. 

  The 10-year-note yield wound up Friday's half-day session ahead of Memorial Day at 4.861%, up from 4.80% a week earlier and the highest since 4.89% on Jan. 29. 
  Back on March 7, the 10-year yield bottomed at 4.49% in the wake of the global stock selloff of Feb. 27. As stock markets recovered, bond yields moved steadily higher as the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut faded amid the buyout boom, which hardly indicates the need for even easier credit. 

  More worrisome than the backup in bond yields over the past few weeks is that it has put the 10-year Treasury up to its downward trendline stretching all the way back to the historic peak of 15% back in 1981. That's the "most important trendline in the world," writes Natexis Bleichroeder technical guru John Roque, who sees a little resistance at 4.90% and then more at 5.25%. From there, he likens the T-note yield to gold prices in 2001, which the consensus then said
couldn't rise. 

  For now, the bond market faces what Goldman Sachs calls a "Quadruple Witching" of economic releases Friday. The employment report should show if job growth picked up in May, as implied by the recent decline in jobless claims. The Institute for Supply Management's May factory index will be watched for confirmation of a rebound in orders. Personal income and spending data for April should clarify the recent mixed reports on consumer spending. The release also includes the Fed's favored inflation gauge, the personal consumption deflator excluding food and energy costs, which has been edging closer to Bernanke & Co.'s comfort zone. 

  As Bette Davis said in All About Eve, fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride. 
  --- 

[GiaMa]

01 julho 2007.
Ontem foi realizada a maior operaçao de Leveraged BuyOut. 

Um consorcio (Teachers Private Capital, Providence Equity Partners Inc., Madison Dearborn Partners, LLC....) compra BCE (Canada) por 48.5 bilhoes de dolares.
Increivel....

Abaixo o link para a noticia em Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN3026547320070630?pageNumber=1

[GiaMa]

Blackstone compra Hilton para 20 bilioes de dolares mais o debito.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWEN915620070704

[GiaMa]

11 julho 2007

Aaaah! Depois 3 meses agora tambem o "mercado" va a falar sobre o problema de credito e os "subprime". Somente agora as pessoas veem o problema?
Eu andavo falando desde 21 avril (inicio de este topico)....


US Stocks Open A Bit Higher; Investors Sort Out Subprime
 
   By Leslie Wines 
 
  U.S. stocks opened with slight gains Wednesday as investors tried to sort out
the broader implications of a plethora of new downgrades and downgrade threats
in the subprime residential mortgage backed securities sector. 

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 5 points at 13506. 
  Among Dow components, financial stocks were in focus as investors tried to
sort out which institutions might be affected in the near future by the subprime
issue. American Express Co. was off 5 cents at $60.25 and JP Morgan Chase was 20
cents lower at $47.25. 
  The S&P 500 was up 1.21 point at 1511.33 and the Nasdaq Composite was 2 points
higher at 2641. 
  On Tuesday Moody's Investors Service downgraded almost 400 subprime
residential mortgage-backed securities and Standard & Poor's threatened to
downgrade more than 600 similar assets. 
  The worries about the contagion from the subprime market spreading to the
broader economy produced a selloff on Tuesday and remained in the forefront of
investors' minds on Tuesday. 
  In addition to sending stocks sharply lower, the subprime worries also sent
the dollar to an all-time record lows against the euro and to its weakest level
against the pound since 1981. 
  "The overarching concern is the extent to which subprime concerns are
spreading throughout the financial system," said Art Hogan, "On some days like
yesterday we are overcome by fears. But, on other days, it seems as if things
won't be so bad." 
  "Also, we have not had a robust earnings season so far," Hogan said. "It is
still too early to call the season disappointing, but we didn't get the great
start we wanted." 
  There are no major scheduled government data reports on Wednesday, but
investors will be eager to view the latest weekly energy stockpile figures at
10.30 a.m. 
  Analysts are uncertain whether General Electric Co., which took a $500 million
first-quarter charge for subprime mortgage losses, may have suffered further
losses in its second quarter, according to The Wall Street Journal online
edition. However, the company earlier the company assured investors the problem
was contained. GE results are due on Friday. The stock was up 2 cents at $37.92.
 
  Chevron Corp. late Tuesday said it expects higher oil and gas prices in the
second quarter, along with strong refining margins and profits from the sale of
its stake in Dynegy. However, the company also said its performance should be
affected by refinery outages and a weaker dollar. 
  The stock was 24 cents higher at $89.25. 
  Gerdau Ameristeel Corp. said late Tuesday that it agreed to buy Chaparrl Steel
Co. for $4.22 billion. The deal price represents a 13.6% premium over Tuesday's
closing price of $75.69. Gerdau Ameristeel stock fell 53 cents at $15.16. 
  Alcan has begun negotiations for a merger agreement with Rio Tinto PLC, as it
seeks to fend off a hostile bid from Alcoa, according to a report in The Globe
and Mail newspaper. The stock rose $1.06 to $87.20. 
  Liz Claiborne Inc. said it is selling 16 of its 36 apparel brands and plans up
to 800 job cuts. The stock rose $1.02 to $38.25. 
  The dollar remained under siege early Wednesday, after suffering numerous
blows this week related to the fact the fed funds rate has stood still for more
than a year, while foreign rates have been rising, diminishing the dollar's
competitive edge. 
  The pound traded at $2.0305, a bit below its overnight high of $2.0351, its
highest level since 1981. The euro was only slightly below its all-time high of
$1.3774, while the dollar traded at 121.36 yen, after falling below 121 yen
overnight for the first time in two months. 
  The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was under slight pressure, after staging a
brisk rally on Tuesday due to the subprime concerns. Treasurys generally receive
safe-haven inflows in times of economic uncertainty. 
  The benchmark note was down 4/32 at 95-26/32 with a yield of 5.045%. 
  Gold continued to benefit from the recent dollar rout. It also is a typical
safe-haven play. The front-month contract was 80 cents higher at $665.20 an
ounce. 
 
  Crude-oil futures edged lower Wednesday, as traders awaited data on U.S.
petroleum supplies that's expected to show a rise in crude inventories for a
sixth week in a row. 
  Crude for August delivery fell 24 cents at $72.57 a barrel. 

[GiaMa]

Depois algunas parenteses, vamos proseguir desde ultimo punto que era esto abaixo:

Hoje, o retorno no capital das companhias é muito elevado, e as taxas de interesse são baixas, especialmente em Japão onde com "swaps" e similar qualquer-um pode obter um empréstimo de 1% ou menos. Conseqüentemente houve 4.000 billions de "transações" (OPA, fusões, aquisições, buyout..) no ano 2006, e tudos da parte de companhias grandes e "mega" fundos (KKR, Blackstone...).

Não é necessário que o público compra nada (e isso è demonstrado no fato que os fluxos de dinheiro nos fundos sois negativos ou perto do zero), a fim de fazer que o publico americano ou  italiano põem 100 billions a fim comprar ações no mercado. Pelo contrario, nos vemos estas fusões de 50 billions, estas "leveraged buyout" de 40 billions. 

Alguns anos atras, pessoas/grupos poupavam e depois compravam açoes com dinehiro “poupado”. Hoje nos temos todos (por exemplo RBS ou Barclay’s que compra ABN, Intesa que compra S.Paolo, KKR que compra muitas coisas, Blackstone que compra tudo mundo….) que compram com « credito ». Todos utilizam mais ou menos ¾ de debito para comprar coisas.

Eles emitem obrigaçoes ou abrem linhas de credito e como resultado è que, no mundo, o 20% de o debito mundial è classificado como “junk” (similhante ao rating dos mutuos americanos “subprime”) com elevada possibilidade de “default” se a economia tem um rallentamento....